Journal article

Quantifying uncertainty in future Southern Hemisphere circulation trends

PAG Watson, DJ Karoly, MR Allen, N Faull, DS Lee

Geophysical Research Letters | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2012

Abstract

The Antarctic polar night jet has intensified during spring in recent decades due to stratospheric ozone depletion and rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and this has had substantial effects on the region's climate. GHG concentrations will rise over the 21st century whereas stratospheric ozone is expected to recover and there is uncertainty in future southern hemisphere (SH) circulation trends. We examine sensitivity to the physics parameterisation of the 21st century SH circulation projection of a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model and the sensitivity of the contribution from stratospheric ozone recovery. Different model parameterizations give a greater range of futu..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council


Funding Acknowledgements

Peter Watson is supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship. David Karoly was supported by the Australian Research Council through the Discovery Projects funding scheme (project FF0668679). Myles Allen was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council HYDRA project (NE/I00680X/1). David Lee was supported by the UK Department for Transport through a contract with Manchester Metropolitan University. We wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper.